Yen VS US Dollar; Trade with caution
Global financial markets are bracing for a possible Fed rate cut. Accordingly, forex markets have priced in the anticipated rate cut. September CPI data indicated US inflation is on course towards 2%; seems like the prevailing interest rates are working.
Blackrock thinks the Fed will be cautious with a 25-bps rate cut as opposed to a 50-bps rate cut. There is also the remote possibility that the Fed will be cautious and maintain the rates. Ostensibly, it seems the markets have aggressively priced in a rate cut that has seen the dollar weaken against major currencies.
Looking at cross Yen pairs, bearish momentum is dominant in Q3 OF 2024. However, we have seen price imbalance and price inefficiency across all Yen pairs that must be corrected. For this imbalance to be corrected, we require the US Dollar to rise. All factors held constant, retaining rates or cutting rates lesser than expected will spook the markets and we could see the dollar strengthen against the Yen and other major global currencies.
Turning to the US Dollar index, we see a potential for further weakening before the index rises targeting 105 to 110 price levels.
