Author: Gitau Morris

  • GBPNZD FORECAST UPDATE

    GBPNZD FORECAST UPDATE

    GBPNZD FORECAST UPDATE

    In the one-month timeframe, GBPNZD has mitigated the long-term supply zone (in red).

    The long-term outlook on the monthly timeframe is largely bearish, though the pair was in bullish mitigation or correction. Presently on the monthly time frame, we have strongly protected highs with weak lows confirming our bearish market structure.

    After the bullish correction, the pair turned bearish, targeting the unmitigated demand at the 1.80 price handle

    Following the geopolitical risks in the United Kingdom, the GBPNZD collapsed to 1.81 levels and quickly formed a new high at the 2.0 price handle. The pair settled and then settled at the demand at the 1.88 price handle. Thereafter, the supply at 2.02 levels was mitigated.

    Presently, on the 4-hour we have reversal confirmation. A change of character (CHOCH) and a break of market structure (BOS) were formed as the market grabbed liquidity as indicated.

    GBPNZD CHART
    GBPNZD 4H

    We are anticipating a reversal on the horizon, and we have three options for selling limits:

    1. A fair value gap at 2.018705 price handle
    2. Liquidity at 2.018405 per handle.
    3. Fresh order block (FOB) in green at 2.017630 price handle.

    Our projected exit sits at 1.889 price handles.

    NB; our forecast is based on institutional order flow suitable for swing traders.
    Risk Warning: CFDs carry a high level of risk to your capital, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
    Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, and I am not telling you where or when to take a trade. I express my personal opinion only. Trading in financial markets involves risk. I am not responsible for any losses incurred due to your trading. I do not recommend any specific trade or action, and any trades you decide to take are your own.

     

     

     

     

  • NZDCHF  FORECAST

    NZDCHF  FORECAST

    NZDCHF  FORECAST

    Across major pairs, the Swiss Franc (CHF) has been bullish creating new lows on monthly timeframes for all cross-CHF pairs. Presently, on the monthly timeframe, we have a bearish market structure.

    On the daily timeframe, we are looking at a possible shift in order flow from bearish to bullish; a corrective bullish move.

    NZDCHF DAILY
    NZDCHF DAILY

    On the 4-hour chart, we have a change of character (CHOCH) and break of structure (BOS) confirming the shift in order flow. How do we intend to trade this pair?

    1. We have an aggressive entry located at the unmitigated demand zone at a 0.55 price handle
    2. A conservative entry sitting below 0.5443 price handle. We favor this conservative entry since there is liquidity sitting around this region.

    We have two possible exits situated around the two green fresh-order blocks (FOB) at 5.58 and 0.59 price handles respectively. Our preference is the higher FOB that has liquidity.

    I strongly recommend we wait for the pair to break the Key structure Daily (KSD). Thereafter we can buy as the bearish correction targets the unmitigated order blocks.

    NB: Our analysis is strictly based on supply and demand, suitable for swing traders.
     Risk Warning: CFDs carry a high level of risk to your capital, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
    Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, and I am not telling you where or when to take a trade. I express my personal opinion only. Trading in financial markets involves risk. I am not responsible for any losses incurred due to your trading. I do not recommend any specific trade or action, and any trades you decide to take are your own.

     

     

     

     

     

  • CADJPY

    CADJPY

    CADJPY

    I have been eyeing this pair for a while now. Top down analysis indicates we have a bearish imprint in the horizon. On the 6-month time frame, CADJPY is in consolidation.

    CADJPY 6 MONTH
    CADJPY 6M

    Dropping down to the 3-month timeframe, we are witnessing the completion of a bullish correction. Moving down to the monthly and daily time frames, we have a change of character on the daily that has created unmitigated supply sitting at 108 price handle. While we have a bearish imprint, I recommend we exercise caution considering there are three possibilities.

    CADJPY 3M
    CADJPY 3M
    1. On the daily timeframe, the price could retrace back to the unmitigated supply targeting the fresh order block and liquidity sitting at 107.9 and 108.66 price handles respectively.
    2. Price could rally and clear the fair value gap sitting at 112.25 then drop down.
    3. A further rally could be in the works, though unlikely targeting the unmitigated supply on the monthly timeframe at 120 price handle.

    In my opinion, scenario (1) and (2) have a higher probability of occurrence. We intend to place our sell limit orders at the liquidity sitting at 108.66 price handle and take profit at 92 for the short term and 76 for the long run.

     

    NB: Our analysis is strictly based on supply and demand, suitable for swing traders.

    Risk Warning: CFDs carry a high level of risk to your capital, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
    Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, and I am not telling you where or when to take a trade. I express my personal opinion only. Trading in financial markets involves risk. I am not responsible for any losses incurred due to your trading. I do not recommend any specific trade or action, and any trades you decide to take are your own.

     

     

     

  • PITFALLS TO AVOID IN FOREX TRADING

    PITFALLS TO AVOID IN FOREX TRADING

    PITFALLS TO AVOID IN FOREX TRADING

    I have been on the forex trading journey for a while now. I have learnt the hard way what to do, how to do it, and when to do it. I have also learnt what not to do. If you want to avoid the dangers that lurk in the world of forex trading, this article is for you.

    1. Underestimating forex trading and assuming it will be easy.

    It is best we get to understand certain realities; forex trading is not easy. The faint-hearted should not attempt forex trading. Many have been attracted by the illusion of quick profits and obscene returns. Possibly you have watched a video where a trader (possibly a scammer) is showing off lots of profits, either in terms of real money or on the MT4 screen in blue (indicative of profits). Usually, thereafter, many individuals express desire to start forex trading with little to no knowledge. The assumption is that if I dedicate a few days or weeks, I will be able to trade profitably. Many people walk away when forex trading is unyielding after a few inconsistent attempts. No worthwhile endeavour in this world is easy.

    Point to note: the majority of would-be traders take 2–5 years of trading before breaking even. When I say break even, I imply there is a sunk cost (lost capital or blown accounts). Approach forex trading with the expectation that it will demand more from you. Make no mistake, there is success and fulfilment in forex trading in the long run.

    1. Linear thinking and unrealistic expectations

    If I make X trades per month and make Y profits multiplied by 12 months, I will make Z dollars by the end of the year, so the argument goes. I used to think like this. Linear thinking convinces you that everything in forex is additive or multiplicative; there are no delays, no losses, and no compounding.

    Repeatedly, I have advised individuals to approach forex trading as a business first and then look to cash in on the profits much later, when the business has grown. You have to be willing to put in months—possibly years—before you reap the benefits. Remember, the forex market transfers wealth from the impatient and incompetent to the patient and competent.

    1. Poor risk management and position stacking

    In relation to linear thinking, when greed sets in, sense leaves the equation. Traders make reckless decisions that expose them to unnecessary risks. This includes oversized lots and position stacking. Often times traders will trade aggressively by placing unnecessarily large lot sizes on small accounts. Other traders will stack trades; place several trades of one instrument with the objective of maximizing returns. The outcomes are usually heart-breaking. This is one sure way to blow your accounts in pursuit of unrealistic profits.

    POOR RISK MANAGEMENT IN FOREX
    STACKED TRADES

    In forex trading, you focus on protecting your capital and minimizing risk before you can think about returns. Take care of your downside; the upside will take care of itself. Remember, forex trading isn’t a sport; aggression is not required.

    1. Comparison, the thief of Joy

    My little experience has taught me that the grass isn’t always greener on the other side. Comparing your journey, process, and profits is a sure way to entertain doubt and jealousy. Doubt has a way of convincing you that others are doing better than you. I was once told that comparison is the thief of joy. Sometimes I have compared my own analysis with that of other traders and altered my analysis, missing out on profitable trades. It doesn’t matter how much your competitors are making; stick to your journey and trading plan and submit yourself to time. Interestingly, once I am done training a student, the first instruction is to unfollow me on all social media platforms. I need them to develop confidence in their skills without comparing themselves to me.

    1. Stale knowledge and complacency

    I suffer from this disease, as do many former masters. Champions have this insatiable desire to always improve for their own satisfaction. In trading, the same approach is required if you are to advance to mastery. I have noticed that once you settle into your rhythm and style of trading, one tends to let go of the hunger to do better. Over time, you fail to notice simple errors that compound over time and derail your journey. If you are still analysing the market the same way you did 12 months ago, something is wrong.

    I make it a habit to always clear my charts and analyse markets afresh. It takes time, but it allows me to look at the market differently once I’ve gathered new information and knowledge. I make it a habit to schedule two learning sessions per week where I watch masters in forex trading and seek to learn something new.

     

     

  • GBPCHF TRADE IDEA

    GBPCHF TRADE IDEA

    GBPCHF

    On the one-month timeframe, GBPCHF displays a strong bearish trend, creating new lows. The long-term outlook on the monthly timeframe is largely bearish, though the pair was in a bullish mitigation or correction.

    Dropping down to the weekly timeframe, we see a break in structure that created the new low at 1.0 price handle. Thereafter, there was a strong bullish correction targeting supply at the 1.16 price handle.

    GBPCHF WEEKLY CHART
    GBPCHF WEEKLY

    Since then, we have seen this pair create lower lows, indicating a bearish correction targeting the unmitigated demand (yellow order block).

    GBPCHF DAILY CHART
    GBPCHF DAILY

    Presently, we are monitoring the pair as we anticipate it to push lower and break the key structure (KSD).

    Thereafter, we will have two options:

    1. A minor bullish correction targeting the unmitigated supply at the 1.14 region where it will pick orders and slide further targeting the unmitigated region (orange arrow).
    2. The break in daily volume will result in a further bearish slide targeting unmitigated demand. This option, represented by the red arrow, may not give sellers an opportunity to enter the market. However, buyers can look to enter once demand is mitigated.

    How do we intend to trade this pair? We have a bearish bias in the interim, therefore, we are anticipating Option 1 to play out and pick our sell limit orders sitting at 1.1435 (liquidity) targeting 1.073.

    NB: Our analysis is strictly based on supply and demand, suitable for swing traders.

     

    Risk Warning: CFDs carry a high level of risk to your capital, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
    Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, and I am not telling you where or when to take a trade. I express my personal opinion only. Trading in financial markets involves risk. I am not responsible for any losses incurred due to your trading. I do not recommend any specific trade or action, and any trades you decide to take are your own.

     

     

     

     

  • ITS FRIDAY, FOREX MARKETS ARE CLOSED, WHAT NEXT?

    ITS FRIDAY, FOREX MARKETS ARE CLOSED, WHAT NEXT?

    ITS FRIDAY, MARKETS ARE CLOSED, WHAT NEXT?

    Entrepreneurship is a tough undertaking, primarily because nobody tells you what to do, when to do and how to do it. That is true in the world of forex trading hence the low survival and success rates. In rare circumstances do traders share their tips on how to remain relevant and successful in the long run. I have made it my purpose to share tips that will aid in your journey. Very few articles and sources of information exist out there on what to do when markets are closed. Majority of us learn the hard way but over time, every trader tends to develop their weekend or time off routine. Mastery takes commitment and time. A large proportion of traders use this time to refine their analysis, set ups and general strategies.

    So, markets are closed, what next?

    This is the best time to take a neutral look of how the week played out. Take this time to journal and seek clarity. What went according to plan? What didn’t go according to plan? And why? Often times we are eager for Monday to come around for us to jump back into the market. Without self-reflection, we tend to repeat our mistakes. Personally, I like asking myself the following questions (example of answers)

    What is happening in the market?

    Is the market trending or ranging?

    Why is it happening?

    Has the market mitigated a previous demand or supply zone? Is there a break of structure or change of character?

    How is it happening?

    Is it a bullish or bearish correction?

     

    This process allows me to accurately read and analyze forex pairs and assess whether my previous set ups are still valid.

    I do recommend once in a while you clear your charts and start analyzing markets afresh. Will  you arrive at the same conclusion as before?

    Finally, take a breather, walk away from the charts and enjoy life. Time away from charts allows your mental and emotional state to be in equilibrium. The market isn’t going anywhere, your skill however, can advance or retrogress. Taking time off to recharge and polish your view of the markets will eventually pay off in the long run.

     

     

  • GBPNZD FORECAST

    GBPNZD FORECAST

    GBPNZD

    On the 3-month timeframe, GBPNZD has mitigated the long-term demand zone (in blue).

    GBPNZD 3M
    GBPNZD 3MONTHS

    The long-term outlook on the monthly timeframe is largely bearish, though the pair was in a bullish mitigation or correction.

    GBPNZD MONTHLY CHART
    GBPNZD MONTHLY CHART

    After the bullish correction, the pair turned bearish, targeting the unmitigated demand at 1.80.

    Following the geopolitical risks in the United Kingdom, the GBPNZD collapsed to 1.81 levels and quickly formed a new high at the 2.02 price handle. The pair settled then settled at the demand at 1.88 price handle. Thereafter, the supply at 1.98 to 2.02 levels was mitigated.

    GBPNZD DAILY
    GBPNZD DAILY CHART

    Presently, we are anticipating a reversal on the horizon, and we have three options for selling limits:

    1. Unmitigated supply at 2.00 per handle.
    2. a fair value gap at 2.005 price handle.
    3. Unmitigated supply at 2.02 price

    Our projected exit sits at the demand level of 1.889 or the fair value gap of 1.85815 price handles.

    Once the market confirms our analysis we shall update this forecast accordingly. Kindly note, we are swing traders looking for long term holding opportunities as opposed to short term trading.

     

    Risk Warning: CFDs carry a high level of risk to your capital, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.

    Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, and I am not telling you where or when to take a trade. I express my personal opinion only. Trading in financial markets involves risk. I am not responsible for any losses incurred due to your trading. I do not recommend any specific trade or action, and any trades you decide to take are your own.

     

     

     

  • USDJPY FORECAST

    USDJPY FORECAST

    USDJPY FORECAST

    On the monthly timeframe, which represents our long-term forecast, we see a mitigation of a previous supply at 150 price handles. This was achieved by the end of 2022. Thereafter in 2023, early in the year, profit-taking pushed the dollar to a previous unmitigated demand at 128 price handle. This confirmed a bearish order flow was at play.

    USDJPY DAILY CHART
    USDJPY

    After forming this new low, USDJPY broke the daily structure, confirming a change of character (CHOCH) on the daily time frame. The CHOCH indicates a bullish correction on the horizon. Presently, the market has settled in the demand zone at a price handle of 131.

    We intend to go long on this pair. We have our buy limit orders sitting at 128.7 with three optional targets.

    1. The unmitigated supply is sitting at 142.
    2. The fresh supply is sitting at 145.
    3. The unmitigated supply is sitting at 147–148.

    Our long-term bias for USDJPY is bearish with a short-term bullish correction. We intend to review our analysis once the 142-148 supplies are mitigated and look for short-term opportunities.

    NB: Our analysis is strictly based on supply and demand, suitable for swing traders.
    Risk Warning: CFDs carry a high level of risk to your capital, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
    Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, and I am not telling you where or when to take a trade. I express my personal opinion only. Trading in financial markets involves risk. I am not responsible for any losses incurred due to your trading. I do not recommend any specific trade or action, and any trades you decide to take are your own.

     

     

  • 5 TIPS TO SURVIVE AND THRIVE IN FOREX TRADING

    5 TIPS TO SURVIVE AND THRIVE IN FOREX TRADING

    5 TIPS TO SURVIVE AND THRIVE IN FOREX TRADING

    The desire to achieve financial freedom is universal. The world of financial service and forex trading in particular is appealing primarily due to the magnitude of profits one can make. By the same measure, the magnitude of losses cannot be ignored. Ambition and passion alone cannot assure your success in forex trading. I would like to share tips and lessons that can improve your odds of success.

    1.     Knowledge is power, right knowledge is freedom.

    Seek knowledge about forex trading patiently and at all cost. Many delve into forex trading with little to no knowledge and expect to make it. Remember, forex trading is a zero-sum game, what you lose, somebody else gains. It’s a ruthless game of skill and patience. If you are not investing in the right knowledge you are guaranteed to be fodder for traders who consistently improve themselves. In my course, I teach you the skills required to analyse the market in 12 weeks, thereafter I expect you to make 50 trades as a way of practicing and refining your edge. Submit yourself to the process of learning. Accept and make peace with the fact that learning is a never ending process.

     

    2.     Focus on risk not return

    You read it right, focus on risk, not return.

    High risk = High return =High probability of failure.

    Low risk= Low return= Low probability of failure.

    Low probability of failure ensures you survive long enough to earn consistent returns. Think of your capital as a tool of trade. Without it you can’t hunt or trade, therefore cannot feed. Would you be willing to risk your tool of trade in high risk environment or low risk environment where you are assured of consistent future possibilities? It is better to risk your tools hunting a rabbit daily or weekly as opposed to unrealistically hunting an elephant. Focus on capital protection long enough and the returns will roll in effortlessly. Take care of your downside, the market will take care of the upside.

    3.     Less is more

    Forex trading is a long-term business. Voluminous trades are not the key to long-term success, lesser trades will do the trick. Suppose you have two traders, Mary and Joseph. They are both interested in succeeding in forex trading, however, Joseph places three micro lot (0.01) trades and Mary places only one micro lot trade (0.01). Joseph is aggressive compared to Mary and is likely to be rewarded big time for his aggression. You are right to think that, but forex trading is not a sport, aggression is not required. Should the market head in their expected direction, Joseph stands to make more money compared to Mary. For a moment, let us assume that the market goes in the opposite direction, who stands to lose more? To reinforce point number two above, Mary is assuming low risk; she has better chances of succeeding in the long-run.

    4.     Trade your plan

    Many traders do fail to consistently follow their plan. I am no exception. In my short trading career, I have come to the following conclusion;

    1. If you follow your plan and succeed, you are more confident and profitable.
    2. If you follow your plan and fail in a trade, you are wiser.

    Adhering to your plan not only improves your edge but it also reduces your exposure to emotional trading; particularly fear and greed. My inability to follow my plan has exposed me to fearful trading and greedy pursuit of profits.

     

         a.         Fear

    At the beginning of 2022, I went short on gold. Putin and Ukraine happened and gold rallied. My plan indicated gold would fall to 1700 price handles. I decided fear knew better and exited my positions on a Friday. Monday morning, as if to mock me, the market sent gold spiralling downwards from 2000 to 1800 and subsequently to 1700 levels. I let fear rob me of a perfect trade. Later in the year, I went long on GBPAUD. Upon close interrogation of the market, fear took control in the absence of empirical data and I closed the position with 6 dollars profit on a micro lot. Later that evening, GBPAUD rallied to my intended take profit, I would have walked away with 23 dollars. The price of fear was 17 dollars for this particular trade.

         b.         Greed.

    In the same year, I placed trades with the intention of making 50 dollars per trade. The market was more than willing to reward me with 30-40 dollars per trader. Yours truly would not take the profit. Later on, the market reversed and took all the profit and converted the trades to running losses. I sacrificed guaranteed profits for unrealistic profits.

    5.     Continuous learning

    The process of refinement is never ending and thinking otherwise is folly. Your process to mastery must return to the full circle. Inevitably, you will find yourself where you started, seeking more knowledge, but this time, it is specific knowledge to improve your edge. You are conscious of the mistakes you are making and willingly seeking additional knowledge to remedy the situation. Evidently the quality of your analysis ,trading plan and confidence gradually improve supported by competence. Value learning over money.

     

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  • USDCAD IDEA

    USDCAD IDEA

    USDCAD IDEA

    The monthly timeframe indicative of the long-term trend shows a resilient and bullish US Dollar versus the Canadian Dollar. The target is the 1.54 price handle. This price handle is the supply that triggered the bearish momentum that created the low at 1-0.99 price handles. This bullish correction is caught in a consolidation between the demand and supply at 1.2 and 1.37 respectively. An impulsive move is signaling in the horizon.

     

    USDCAD 3 MONTHS
    USDCAD 3M

    On the weekly timeframe, we are cognizant of the unmitigated demand at 1.21 that could be a long-term profit target should the market create new long-term lows. On the Daily timeframe, we have a minor consolidation structure with a bearish imprint.

    USDCAD ANALYSIS
    USDCAD DAILY

    Once we have a confirmed break in structure and change of character (CHOCH), we anticipate a return to supply where we have a combination of liquidity and fresh unmitigated supply zones; 1.37 price handle. At this level we anticipate our sell orders to be triggered targeting the key daily structure below at the 1.30 price handle. Once price settles at this region;

    1. The price could rebound upwards.
    2. The price could slide further towards the unmitigated demand at 1.2 price handle.

    We will update our outlook as the market gives us new information.

    Our analysis is based on smart money concepts; supply and demand. We recommend this set up for swing and position traders.

    Risk Warning: CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
    Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor and I am not telling you where or when to take a trade. I express my personal opinion only. Trading financial markets involve risk. I am not responsible for any losses incurred due to your trading. I do not recommend any specific trade or action, and any trades you decide to take are your own.