FOREX WATCHLIST WEEK 39,2023

As we draw close to the end of Q3, we have a mixed bag of bullish and bearish set ups. Below we have our forex watchlist week 39 ,2023.

GBPJPY

Earlier in the month, the set up was posted in my Telegram channel. Presently, we have a mitigation in the demand zone. In the coming weeks we anticipate two possible moves. Firstly, a consolidation represented by the purple arrow. Secondly, a correction then a bearish continuation represented by the orange arrow. Our job is to wait for the market to break below then find valid sell limit set ups. Join my telegram channel for access to updated set ups.

 

AUDJPY

There are signs the Bank of Japan (BOJ) want s to prop up the Japanese Yen (JPY). Presently, the yen is broadly weaker against major pairs. Late in week 38 of 2023, we saw signs of Yen recovery against the Australian Dollar (AUD). There was a break of structure indicating a shift in order flow. The ideal way to trade this pair is to wait for a second break, then place the sell limit orders accordingly. The targeted exit is the liquidity sitting below.

 

CHJPY

We maintain an overall bearish on cross JPY pairs. Though we missed an entry earlier in the week, there are premium sell opportunities we can exploit in the coming days. Once we have a second break, we will look for sell limit orders once the bullish correction move is complete. In the even the bearish move breaks lower then we either wait for a consolidation and a break or retracement and a break represented by the purple and orange arrows respectively.

NZDJPY

On the 4 hour chart, we are anticipating a change of character (CHOCH) confirming a shift in order flow. Once we register the CHOCH, we will look for sell limits targeting the 83.85 price handle. Kindly note, this is not a confirmed sell set up.

 

GBPCAD

Early September, the sell set for GBPCAD was posted on my Instagram page. The oil price rally is positively correlated with the rally in Canadian Dollar (CAD). We see UKOIL and USOIL rallying to 100-115 price handles, this of course will push the value of CAD. That informs our sell outlook for cross CAD pairs. On the 4 hour chart we have market a possible sell limit entry targeting the liquidity at 1.62 to 1.61. Patient swing traders can hold the trade targeting the fresh order block at 1.553. Join my telegram channel for access to updated set ups.

 

EURCAD

Presently, we are settled in a previous flip zone. We are awaiting a break to the downside for us to confirm the sell set up. If the key structure daily is broken, we will look for sell limit during the bullish correction targeting the 1.32 zones.

 

USDCAD

As outlined before, we have a bearish outlook on cross CAD pairs. Previously, we had a break of structure and a quick correction that we missed an entry. We shall be awaiting for a break to the downside, thereafter we shall seek to place out sell limit orders during the correction. Our projected exit is the  fresh order block at 1.305 price handle.

 

GBPCHF

We are witnessing the British Pound (GBP) broadly weakening against other major currencies. For the better part of Q3, GBPCHF has settled and consolidated around the demand area. For us to exploit this opportunity, we shall wait for a break of the key structure, thereafter we shall look for sell opportunities targeting the fresh order block at 1.073 as our exit area.

 

EURCHF

Towards the close of Q3, the Swiss Franc (CHF) was broadly higher against other major currencies. The decision by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to retain the rates at the present levels caught the market by surprise. We saw a EURCHF rally that is likely to correct the coming days, key word, likely. We have our buy limit orders placed at the flip zone liquidity 0.95660 targeting the upside fresh order block at 0.974.

GBPNZD

The British pound is weakening broadly against major currencies. Presently, against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), the pair has settled in a strong demand/flip zone area. We have two possibilities likely to play out next week, a consolidation and a break (orange arrow) or a break and a correction (purple arrow). Either way, we are looking for sell limits once there is a break to the downside.

 

EURNZD

 

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is gradually gaining ground towards the close of Q3,2023. For the better part of Q1 and Q2, NZD was weaker across the board. Weak Chinese data hurt the AUD and NZD. Presently, we are witnessing a possible shift in order flow from bullish to bearish. Once there is a break of structure from the current market price, we are anticipating a consolidation or a clean break. Either way, we are looking for sell limit orders targeting the liquidity at 1.672.

 

AUDNZD

We have a combination of major and minor consolidation represented by the purple and orange arrows respectively. The major trend is bearish though we are witnessing consolidations on the 4 hour and daily charts. Once we register a break of structure on the minor structure, we will look for sell limit orders targeting the liquidity at 1.0514 price handle.

FOREX WATCHLIST, WEEK 36, 2023

EURCAD

On the 4 hour chart, we are monitoring possible sell opportunities. After the impulsive move represented by the green arrow, the pair is in a bullish correction that seems to be losing momentum. Presently we have a break of structure. I am awaiting a correction targeting a trend line liquidity and fresh order block on the 5 minute charts. The second alternative entry is the fresh order block on the 4 hour timeframe My proposed exit is either the fresh order block at 1.451 or the liquidity at 1.4485. Kindly note, once we have a break in the Keys Structure marker, we will be shift the market structure to bearish targeting 1.42 region.

EURNZD

On the weekly timeframe, we have completed a bullish correction that has been active for the better part of 2022 and 2023. On the 4 hour time frame, we have a change of character and a break of structure. Presently, we are waiting for a correction targeting the Fresh order blocks 1.831 or 1.83395 where we will place our sell limit orders. The targeted exit is the Fresh Order block sitting at the bottom of the swing structure at 1.77280.

XAGUSD

For the better part of August 2023, we witnessed a bullish correction on XAGUSD. The correction grabbed liquidity represented by Equal High (EQLH). Immediately after the liquidity grab we saw a rejection. Presently we are awaiting a break of structure that coincides with a flip zone. Once we register a break of structure, we will place our sell limits appropriately targeting the fresh order block (FOB) sitting below or the trend line liquidity on the daily charts.

 

US 100 Index

Investors reaction to disappointing data from China’s economy is reflected in the bearish momentum we are presently witnessing. We have a break of a previous flip zone which informs our bearish outlook of this index. We have two possible entry points; 15234 and 15466. I favour the former entry targeting to exit at 14626 or 14329 if I am patient.

BTCUSD

Following the poor economic data from China and the bankruptcy fears , the dollar appears to be a safe haven for most investors. The bearish slide of BTCUSD confirms this. Presently, we have two option so how to trade BTCUSD. First option is a bullish correction targeting the 28913 price handle where we have a sell limit order placed. Second option is a possibility of a consolidation near the demand zone before a break to the downside. We do not have a viable sell limit for the second option.

 

EURUSD

The strong resurgence of the dollar in the second half of the year has created bearish trading opportunities for cross USD pairs. Presently, EURUSD has reversed from the gains made earlier. I am anticipating a bullish correction targeting the fresh order block at 1.09896 or the unmitigated region sitting above. Sell limit is placed at the 1.09896 with the exit targeted at the liquidity sitting below at 1.06363.

 

EURZAR

For the better part of the year, the South Africa Rand has weakened against major currencies. Q2 we saw a reversal. Presently we have completed a bullish correction that grabbed the trend line liquidity. We have or sell limit orders placed either at the liquidity level of 20.67125 or unmitigated supply at 20.71422. Our projected exit is the liquidity sitting below the equal lows at 19.209.

 

TRADE RECAP 2, JULY, 2023

This is a trade recap for XAUUSD, GBPJPY, EURCHF and GBPCHF. The recap is in video format. Kindly subscribe and like our videos.

 

FOREX WATCHLIST, WEEK 31, 2023

Earlier in the month I posted analysis of major currencies indicating several scenarios. We are in the tail end of corrective moves, we are anticipating continuation of the main trend.

 

XAUUSD

After strong data from the US on unemployment, the dollar rallied causing XAUUSD to slide. Presently, we have broken a key zone and formed a new low after a change of character. We are anticipating a minor bullish correction targeting the unmitigated zone. Our targeted exit is the 1902 liquidity.

 

GBPJPY

The Bank of Japan issued an unexpected monetary policy update that propped the Yen against major currencies. After a change of character (CHoCH), we are presently awaiting a minor bullish correction targeting either unmitigated zone. Our targeted exit is the flip zone/demand zone at 170 price handle.

 

 

AUDJPY

We are witnessing a completion of bullish correction and a creation of a new low. Our targeted entry is the liquidity at 95.4 and exiting ta 88.15 price handle. Kindly note the pair has a possibility of pushing higher targeting the fresh order blocks sitting higher.

DXY

After a strong unemployment data, the dollar index is resurging. Cross USD pairs are broadly bearish awaiting key NFP data this week. Presently we have a flip zone identified by the fresh order block (in green). I have placed a buy limit at that region targeting the 102 region. Point to note, the same set up is also valid for USDCAD.

EURCHF

After a bearish slide, we are in witnessing a bullish correction. Buy limit placed at the unmitigated demand. The long term trend is still bearish.

NB: Our analysis is strictly based on supply and demand, suitable for swing traders.

 

 Risk Warning: CFDs carry a high level of risk to your capital, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, and I am not telling you where or when to take a trade. I express my personal opinion only. Trading in financial markets involves risk. I am not responsible for any losses incurred due to your trading. I do not recommend any specific trade or action, and any trades you decide to take are your own.

TRADE RECAP-JULY 2023

We have shared our trade recap of AUDUSD, USDJPY, and CADJPY. Kindly watch it on Youtube and TikTok.

 

FOREX WATCHLIST WEEK 28, 2023

XAUUSD

Towards the close of Q2 2023, Gold had completed its rally against the Dollar. Q3 ushered a shift in order flow where we saw Gold form new lows at 190 price handle. Presently we are witnessing a completion of a bullish correction. In the coming days or weeks we have two scenarios likely to play out.

1. Bearish continuation targeting 1840 levels
2. Continuation of the bullish correction targeting 1960-1980 levels.

I favor the first scenario.

EURCHF

On the Daily timeframe, we are witnessing a flip of a previous strong demand zone. We have two scenarios and possible option on how to trade them;

1. After the break of structure, we anticipate a correction targeting a previous supply. At this level we can sell targeting the order block in green or the fair value gap.
2. After the break, we can witness a bearish continuation with no bullish correction targeting the same levels identified above. If this scenario we will buy targeting the unmitigated supply.

GBPCHF

On the 4 hour time frame, we are awaiting a break of structure. Previously we registered a Change of character indication a shift in order flow to bearish. Once we have a break of structure, the shift will be confirmed. Once this happens we will look to sell at a fair value gap, fresh order block or unmitigated supply targeting the fresh order bloc (FOB) or the liquidity. Our long term target is the break of weekly swing structure.

AUDJPY

Across major pairs we are witnessing signs of weakening bullish pressure against the Japanese Yen. AUDJPY has formed new lows (CHOCH & BOS). Presently we are awaiting a bullish correction targeting any of the identified fresh order blocks. Our preference is the fresh order block with the liquidity sitting above. Projected exit is the liquidity, unmitigated demand or the fair value gap sitting below.

AUDCAD

The proposed oil supply cuts propped the Canadian Dollar. Presently, across major currencies we are witnessing a bullish correction before a bearish continuation. For the AUDCAD, we have a CHOCH & BOS suggesting a shift in order flow targeting the unmitigated regions and fair value gaps above. Once the pair indicates the bullish correction is coming to an end, that’s when I will enter the market targeting the liquidity below.

EURGBP

This pair has been on a downtrend for a while now. The bearish momentum is not over yet. At the moment we have a minor bullish correction. Once the market mitigates the supply sitting above, we will enter the market targeting the liquidity below.

 

MARKET OUTLOOK 2 Q3 2023

CROSS JPY PAIRS

As we cross into the second half of 2023, we have updated the market outlook with cross JPY pairs bullish in the short term and bearish in the long term. Later on, we will update our outlook as more setups present themselves.

GBPJPY LONG

On the monthly time frame, we have a bullish correction targeting the 180 price handle. On the same time frame, the pair seems to be in consolidation. While our outlook is bullish in the short term, we are anticipating a shift in the market structure once the pair mitigates the 180 price handle. Once setups are confirmed, we will post them.

CHFJPY SHORT

Unlike GBPJPY, the CHFJPY on the 4-hour is printing a bearish order flow. We have a rather weak bearish view of this pair. That will change if the pair breaks the new low on the 4-hour timeframe and the daily low.

CADJPY LONG

Similar to GBPJPY, the outlook is a bullish correction in the short term targeting the 108 price handle. On the daily timeframe, we have a confirmed change of character that shifted the market from bullish to bearish. Once the bullish correction hits our point of interest, we will look for long-term sell orders.

USDJPY LONG

Similar to GBPJPY, the outlook is a bullish correction in the short term targeting the 145 price handle. On the daily timeframe, we have a confirmed change of character that shifted the market from bullish to bearish. Once the bullish correction hits our point of interest, we will look for long-term sell orders targeting 128 price handles.

 AUDCHF LONG

Following the unexpected rate hike by the Royal Bank of Australia (RBA), the Australian dollar is enjoying strong bullish momentum though it’s a correction in a larger bearish trend. Further, a general weakening of the Swiss franc across major pairs fuels this bullish correction targeting the 0.62 region. Presently, we are awaiting a change of character on the daily timeframe and then a minor bearish correction as buy orders are picked at the 0.58-0.59 price handles. Our targeted exit is the 0.62 region.

 

Watch video

https://youtu.be/p7q3ffD1Sh0

MARKET OUTLOOK Q3 2023

As we cross into the second half of 2023, we have updated the market outlook with the dollar bullish across major pairs. Presently we have bearish setups we are monitoring. Later on, we will update our outlook as more setups present themselves.

BTCUSD SHORT

On the 4-hour chart, we anticipate a break in structure thereafter a bullish retracement where we will place our sell limit orders in the unmitigated order block. Our target profit market is the 20,000 price handle though we see BTC USD falling further toward the 12-15,000 price handle.

XAUUSD SHORT

Though our outlook is bearish, we can only confirm it once the pair crosses the 1940-1930 region thereby breaking internal structure. IF that happens we will have a confirmed shift in market structure. Our intention is to await a bullish retracement to 1980, 1990, 2001, or 2028 price handles where we will place our sell limit orders targeting the liquidity at 1812 near the weekly swing structure.

GBPUSD SHORT

Similar to the XAUUSD outlook, on the daily timeframe, we are awaiting the break of the Key structure Daily (KSD). Once we have the break of KSD, we anticipate a bullish correction targeting the unmitigated region at 1.225, representing our sell limit region. Our targeted exit is the liquidity sitting at a 1.19 price handle.

GBPCAD SHORT

As we await the Bank of Canada (BOC) interest rate decision, we presently have a break of structure. We anticipate a bullish retracement targeting the fresh order block (FOB) where we have our sell limit orders. Our targeted exit is the liquidity at 1.62 or 1.60 price handles.

AUDCAD SHORT

Following the unexpected rate hike by the Royal Bank of Australia (RBA), the Australian dollar is enjoying strong bullish momentum though it’s a correction in a larger bearish trend. We are anticipating sell limit entries at the conservative area of 0.909 price handle. Our profit target is the fresh order block (FOB) at 0.87 or the liquidity below at 0.866.